•IA-Sen: What a difference a few weeks makes. It wasn't that long ago that Republicans were privately conceding that Joni Ernst was a few points behind Democrat Bruce Braley in the Iowa U.S. Senate contest. However, more recent polls have shown either a very tight race or have given Ernst the lead. And on Saturday night, things came to a head when Selzer & Co., on behalf of the Des Moines Register, released a survey showing Ernst up 44-38 on Braley. Frustratingly, though, the Register did not release crosstabs, making it difficult to peer under the hood.
But Selzer has a good reputation in Iowa, and this survey in particular seemed to fill Democrats with a little extra dread and Republicans with a little extra enthusiasm. Please read below the fold for our analysis of Selzer's track record, and what these numbers mean for Braley.